Who will win the 2026 World Cup?

There is no single answer — so we ran the bracket. Every team carries a rating, every match a win probability; simulate the whole knockout path and you get each nation's chance of lifting the trophy. Here is the full title-odds ranking for all 48 teams. Disagree? Good — open the predictor and back your own champion.

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The favourites

#	Team	Group	Rating	Title odds
1	🇫🇷France	B	2045	15%
2	🇦🇷Argentina	A	2055	13%
3	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	D	1995	9%
4	🇪🇸Spain	C	2010	8%
5	🇵🇹Portugal	F	1975	8%
6	🇧🇷Brazil	E	1990	7%
7	🇩🇪Germany	H	1945	5%
8	🇳🇱Netherlands	G	1960	5%
9	🇺🇾Uruguay	B	1880	4%
10	🇧🇪Belgium	I	1900	4%
11	🇨🇴Colombia	D	1860	3%
12	🇭🇷Croatia	A	1885	2%

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Full title-odds ranking — all 48 teams

#	Team	Group	Rating	Title odds
1	🇫🇷France	B	2045	15%
2	🇦🇷Argentina	A	2055	13%
3	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	D	1995	9%
4	🇪🇸Spain	C	2010	8%
5	🇵🇹Portugal	F	1975	8%
6	🇧🇷Brazil	E	1990	7%
7	🇩🇪Germany	H	1945	5%
8	🇳🇱Netherlands	G	1960	5%
9	🇺🇾Uruguay	B	1880	4%
10	🇧🇪Belgium	I	1900	4%
11	🇨🇴Colombia	D	1860	3%
12	🇭🇷Croatia	A	1885	2%
13	🇲🇦Morocco	E	1850	2%
14	🇮🇹Italy	C	1875	2%
15	🇳🇴Norway	L	1830	2%
16	🇨🇭Switzerland	F	1805	1%
17	🇲🇽Mexico	J	1810	1%
18	🇺🇸USA	K	1820	1%
19	🇩🇰Denmark	H	1795	1%
20	🇯🇵Japan	G	1800	1%
21	🇸🇳Senegal	I	1790	1%
22	🇨🇦Canada	L	1788	1%
23	🇷🇸Serbia	J	1770	1%
24	🇰🇷South Korea	K	1762	1%
25	🇹🇷Turkey	I	1800	0.4%
26	🇺🇦Ukraine	J	1790	0.3%
27	🇦🇺Australia	C	1730	0.2%
28	🇵🇱Poland	D	1725	0.2%
29	🇦🇹Austria	A	1758	0.2%
30	🇪🇨Ecuador	B	1752	0.2%
31	🇳🇬Nigeria	E	1720	0.1%
32	🇩🇿Algeria	L	1712	0.1%
33	🇨🇲Cameroon	F	1705	0%
34	🇮🇷Iran	G	1700	0%
35	🇬🇭Ghana	H	1680	0%
36	🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	A	1640	0%
37	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	B	1758	0%
38	🇭🇺Hungary	C	1742	0%
39	🇨🇱Chile	H	1720	0%
40	🇪🇬Egypt	K	1705	0%
41	🇵🇪Peru	G	1700	0%
42	🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire	D	1692	0%
43	🇵🇾Paraguay	F	1690	0%
44	🇹🇳Tunisia	E	1680	0%
45	🇶🇦Qatar	I	1652	0%
46	🇺🇿Uzbekistan	J	1640	0%
47	🇵🇦Panama	K	1638	0%
48	🇳🇿New Zealand	L	1505	0%

How these odds are calculated

Each team has a strength rating. For any match, the rating gap sets a win probability, and we roll that probability forward through every round — Round of 32 to the final — to get the share of simulations each team wins. It is a pre-tournament model, not a betting market: it knows ratings, not injuries, form or the bounce of the ball. That gap is exactly where your prediction comes in.

Which dark horses could win the 2026 World Cup? Uruguay (4%), Belgium (4%), Colombia (3%), Croatia (2%).

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Odds are an independent fan model and update as the bracket and ratings evolve. Not a betting product.